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Generative AI
ChatGPT and Generative AI – why NOW is the time to understand them?
Comprehensive knowledge of the processes in societies, politics, the environment, the economy or technology and tracking the course they take is not accessible. Understanding the overall changes at many levels also requires in-depth analysis. All aspects of life are subject to constant transformations, often creating temporary and sometimes long-term trends. The most noticeable is the migration to digital reality, in which AI technologies play a crucial role. In this article, we focus on the trend related to artificial intelligence, using research from the Infuture Institute and its Trend Map.
Infuture Institute – researching the future
Infuture Institute (infuture.institute) – is a scientific institution specialising in trend analysis, forecasting, and business consulting. By providing comprehensive reports, it supports the development of companies and institutions in the area of business and economy.
The Infuture Institute presents an innovative approach to understanding the changes that societies, politics, and business are subject to. These changes, known as trends, are significant processes that endure over time, with a direction that can be determined, but an endpoint that remains unknown.
Depending on the symptoms and factors that appear, a trend can change, gain momentum or slow down. It is the main difference between a trend and a fad that comes and goes. Trends, on the other hand, can represent new values and needs.
Trend Map
The Institute has developed its authorial Trend Map, which graphically presents the most important changes in the world in all areas of life. It is both a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the trends taking place in them, presented in four-time perspectives:
- NOW – trends operating on the market, towards which companies take many actions (investment, marketing, product, etc.);
- NEW – short-term (1–5 years) are trends that few companies respond to or respond to to a limited extent;
- NEXT – medium-term (5–15 years) shows trends that are noticeable but at a very early stage of development;
- BEYOND– long-term (15+ years) – a perspective of the future, especially concerning technological trends – a trend visible in one or several time perspectives.
The 2024 Trend Map was launched as an interactive platform. In addition to its definition, the causes and consequences of the trend, technologies supporting the given trend and sensitive industries were added. Each trend is described by the Trend Momentum Index (TMI) – an indicator of the significance of trends describing them in the following dimensions: hype (how popular a given trend is in the media) and impact (how much of an impact it has on our world).
Global 7 megatrends
The Institute has been developing the Trend Map for 7 years, and it is being improved and updated every year. The last one (2024) includes seven (two more than in 2023) megatrends.
Megatrends are large, long-term, uncontrollable changes of a global nature, changing the balance of power and/or the current way of functioning. They were defined as:
- World of social transformations – describes fundamental changes in the social structure of different generations.
- AI world – shows the key role of AI in all aspects of life.
- Mirror world – describes the concept of an evolving parallel digital world expanding our physical reality.
- Alternative worlds – reflects the shift of human exploration and innovation beyond traditional boundaries.
- Sustainable world – shows the global shift towards sustainable development.
- World of health crises – refers to global health challenges.
- World of war – describes the growing number of conflicts and tensions at the global level.
The 7 megatrends include 81 unique trends (subtrends) contained in each of the four-time perspectives. These are ongoing, noticeable social, technological, economic, or political changes that affect many independent spheres of life and can be influenced – slowed down or accelerated.
In 2023, Natalia Hatalska, founder of the Institute, said of the Trend Map:
It is a picture of the reality we live in. It allows us to see that we are very quickly moving to the digital space on many levels. The mirror world is basically our new normal. The map shows how strongly it overlaps with another megatrend – the multi-polarisation of the world – and how much it contributes to the fragmentation of the world. […] changes led by the biotechnological revolution, including primarily genetic and tissue engineering. All this makes us realise that the world's digitisation will change not only socio-political life but also our biological life.
Megatrend AI World
This megatrend describes a world in which AI technologies play a key role in all social, economic, and technological life aspects. It is an era in which technologies based on AI influence the functioning of society, the economy, education, healthcare, and international relations.
AI World – trends in the NOW time perspective
- Collective Intelligence – based on the synergistic combination of human intelligence and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.
- Robo(Co)Workers – robots and/or AI become co-workers or employees.
- Literacy Crisis – reduced level of reading, reading with understanding and writing/clear formulation of thoughts.
- Big Tech Regulation – an attempt (mainly EU) to reduce the dominance of Big Techs and support European technology players.
- No-code – enabling people without specialist programming skills to develop applications and other IT solutions.
- Data surveillance – collecting data about people/groups of people in order to monitor, analyse, evaluate and control their activities.
- TechSovereignty Clash – control over the digital world, managed by competing technology companies, and an attempt to regain sovereignty.
- Digital inequalities – refers to the growing disproportions in access to digital technologies, the Internet and digital competencies.
- Synthetic Media – the growing amount of content generated using AI, such as illustrations, photos, sound, text, virtual characters or influencers.
- Techlash – an attitude of opposition to large technology companies and their negative impact on the functioning of individuals and societies.
- Fake Reality – the creation of so-called deep fakes, i.e., realistic video and sound manipulations associated with GenAI's dynamic development.
- Conflict Digitisation – changing the nature of contemporary conflicts and wars under the influence of technology, making cyberspace a battlefront like a physical one.
- Creativity Reimaigned– popularisation of access to GenAI, thanks to which people have been equipped with competencies they did not previously possess.
8 New AI Trends in 2024 (NEW time perspective)
1. Neurotech Revolution
Neurotech Revolution trend was born as a result of research and innovation in the fields of biotechnology, neuroscience, neuroengineering, neurology and the search for new methods of treatment/therapy using neurological technologies. As part of the trend, advanced brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), neuroimplants, deep brain stimulation technologies and tools for precise mapping of neuronal activity are being developed.
The consequences of the trend are related to improving the quality of life of people with disabilities by restoring sensory and motor functions, treating neurodegenerative and psychiatric diseases, etc. This trend also raises questions in the field of ethics, privacy and identity, affecting the way we understand the human mind; it also gives rise to reflections on consciousness and the boundaries between human and artificial intelligence.
2. Other AI forms
Other AI Forms trend refers to various AI models. It was caused by global challenges such as the climate crisis, food crisis, raw material crisis, energy transformation, ageing societies, increasing number of diseases. Also, there is a need to cope with challenges that traditional/previous models and technologies can only sometimes meet.
This trend includes the following categories: causal AI, Bayesian AI, Neurosymbolic AI, Responsive AI, Self-replicating AI, or Neuromorphic Intelligence.
3. Zoomorphic Robots
Zoomorphic Robots trend involves designing and creating robots whose form and functions are inspired by animals' appearance and natural features, imitating specific species' movements, appearance, and biological functions.
These robots are used, among other things, in tasks that require the ability to move in rugged terrain or are related to monitoring safety or interaction with people.
4. Emotion Aware Technology
Emotion Tware Technology trend was born due to the development of society, in which more and more interactions occur via digital devices, and the need to create more intuitive tools.
As part of the trend, devices such as computers, robots, etc. can recognise and respond to human emotions. The development of these technologies, on the one hand, facilitates communication and understanding emotions in various situations, from customer service to healthcare, and on the other hand, reduces the quality of communication.
5. Hybrid Society
As part of the Hybrid Society trend, efforts are being made to increase efficiency and reduce costs through automation and robotisation of work. The rapid development of robotics and AI makes machines increasingly advanced and capable of interacting with people. The trend is leading to their widespread presence in social, economic and personal spaces, creating a hybrid society.
Key features of the trend include the interaction of humans and robots with AI systems in workplaces, education, healthcare, and other areas, as well as the development of autonomous machines capable of making decisions and performing tasks without human supervision. As a result, there will be changes in the labour market, where certain roles and functions will be automated, which may lead to further changes in the employment structure and require new skills.
6. Embodied Intelligence
Embodied Intelligence trend emphasises the importance of the physical body in the process of learning and decision-making by machines, moving away from the traditional approach to AI, which focuses on algorithms processing data. Now, the “body” of the machine is becoming a key element in the cognitive process.
Other aspects of the trend include machine interaction with the environment (robots and AI learn through direct interaction with the environment, which allows them to better understand and adapt to changing conditions. (cf. Hybrid society).
7. Organoid intelligence
Organoid intelligence trend involves the use of organoids – simplified, miniature versions of organs grown in laboratories from stem cells – to simulate the functions of the brain and other organs for computational purposes. Technological solutions combining tissue engineering and synthetic biology are being developed to create structures (including biodigital interfaces) that can process information.
The trend opens up new possibilities for both AI and medicine, mainly in the field of neurobiology. At the same time, it raises ethical questions regarding the cultivation and use of brain organoids, as well as the interactions between biological and digital systems.
8. Ethical AI
Ethical AI trend has triggered the progressive impact of AI technologies on various areas of life, society, and the economy. It involves the need to build algorithms and systems that are supposed to be transparent, free from bias, fair and respectful of human rights.
Growing public awareness of the possible effects of AI is giving rise to initiatives related to the introduction of ethical standards, legal regulations and education in the field of AI ethics. Maintaining a balance between the development of AI and its security, impact on privacy, and its ethical use remains a challenge.
AI Trends in the NEXT time perspective
- Quantum Revolution: This trend is related to the intensive development and, ultimately, the implementation of quantum technologies, including quantum computers. It will result in changes in many areas of socio-economic life, mainly in industry, medicine, and IT.
AI Trends in the BEYOND time perspective
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): This is the creation (currently hypothetical) of a form of AI that can understand, learn, adapt, and perform tasks similar to humans.
- Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): It is a hypothetical level of AI that surpasses human intelligence in all areas of life, such as reasoning, planning, understanding the world, or creativity.
How can organisations use the Trend Map
The map is a useful tool for organisations from almost every field and industry because working with trends is a strategic activity aimed at making changes for the better. Thanks to it, companies can also take action to take responsibility for the world in which they operate.
The map is like a radar that shows the way and allows:
- planning long-term strategies that respond to current and future challenges;
- making informed decisions at all levels of the organisation, especially regarding innovation, research, and broadly understood development;
- building a competitive advantage by identifying new markets, technologies, and changing customer needs and behaviours, as a result, offering new products/services;
- identifying potential risks and developing strategies to mitigate/eliminate them;
- introducing innovations and developing products/services that respond to changing customer/consumer needs or using the latest technological achievements.
Summary
As the above research and data show, analysing current and upcoming technological trends is essential when companies implement AI-based solutions. Thanks to the Trend Map and its presentation in four-time perspectives, organisations can identify changes and related uncertainties, set potential directions for development, and better prepare for current and future challenges.
It is worth noting that most of the trends described here are found not only in the “World of AI” megatrend but also in the others. This means that artificial intelligence permeates all spheres of social and economic life, and the transfer to digital space is becoming a fact.
